The ‘Second Wave’ of privatisation is complete. Now, the market is bracing for the ultimate fixture: the potential listing of the Kingdom’s football giants. Our Telegraph Insight report analyses the valuations, the risks, and the timeline for a 2026 public offering.
For the past three years, the transformation of Saudi football has been a story of spending. From Cristiano Ronaldo’s arrival to the billions deployed in transfer fees, the narrative was about deploying capital.
In 2026, the narrative is shifting to returning capital.
Following the successful privatisation of the “Second Wave” clubs in July 2025, where Al Kholoud, Al Zulfi, and Al Ansar were sold to private investment firms like the US-based Harburg Group, the Kingdom’s Ministry of Sport has proven the concept works.
Now, the whispers in the corridors of the King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) are getting louder. The Public Investment Fund (PIF), which holds 75% stakes in the “Big 4” (Al Hilal, Al Nassr, Al Ittihad, Al Ahli), is reportedly exploring the next logical step: an Initial Public Offering (IPO).
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The “Second Wave” Success
To understand the IPO potential, we must look at the data from 2025.
The privatization of the mid-tier clubs was the litmus test. When Al Kholoud was acquired 100% by the Harburg Group, it signaled that international private equity was willing to bet on the Saudi Pro League (SPL) not just as a vanity project, but as a business.
“The 2025 privatizations were critical,” explains Faisal Al-Sayed, a sports finance analyst at Jadwa Investment. “They proved that the legal framework for transfer of ownership is robust. Investors now know they can own a club, manage its commercial rights, and develop its real estate without bureaucratic gridlock.”
The valuations of these mid-tier clubs have reportedly risen by 15-20% in the 12 months since privatization, driven by better commercial management and the league’s expanding global broadcast rights.
The Big 4: Too Big to Fail, Too Big to Hide?
However, the “Big 4” are a different beast. Collectively, they account for over 70% of the league’s commercial revenue and market value.
Currently, PIF owns 75%, with the remaining 25% held by non-profit foundations. The rumored Saudi football club IPO 2026 plan involves PIF floating a tranche of its stake, likely 15-20%, on the Saudi Exchange (Tadawul).
Why list now?
- Liquidity for Infrastructure: The Kingdom is building 11 new stadiums for the 2034 World Cup. An IPO would raise independent capital to fund these capex projects without drawing further from the sovereign wealth fund.
- Market Maturity: The SPL is now broadcasting to over 150 territories. Commercial revenues have hit the SAR 1.8 billion ($480m) target. The product is “market-ready.”
- Fan Ownership: An IPO allows the passionate fanbase—millions of whom pack the stadiums weekly—to have a financial stake in their club’s success.
Valuation: What is Al Hilal Worth?
Valuing a football club is notoriously difficult (just ask Manchester United). But using revenue multiples and brand value, analysts are crunching the numbers.
Al Hilal, the reigning Asian champions and the league’s most dominant force, is the crown jewel.
- Estimated Valuation: $600 million – $800 million.
- Key Assets: The Kingdom Arena lease, the “Blue Power” retail brand, and a global fanbase rivalling European giants.
Al Nassr, driven by the “Ronaldo Effect,” follows closely.
- Estimated Valuation: $500 million – $650 million.
- Key Assets: Massive social media reach (top 5 globally) and high-value sponsorship deals with Nike and Adidas.
“If Al Hilal lists in late 2026, it would likely be the most oversubscribed IPO in Tadawul history,” predicts Al-Sayed. “Every Saudi national will want a piece of the Blue Wave.”
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The Risks: Volatility on the Pitch
However, an IPO comes with risks that don’t exist in petrochemicals or banking.
“Football stocks are volatile,” warns a portfolio manager at SNB Capital. “If Al Hilal loses the league title, the stock drops. If a star player gets injured, the stock drops. Retail investors in Saudi Arabia are used to stable dividends from Aramco. Are they ready for the rollercoaster of a sports stock?”
There is also the question of spending caps. For a club to be profitable for shareholders, it cannot spend unlimited oil money on transfers. An IPO would force the “Big 4” to adhere to stricter financial fair play rules, potentially limiting their ability to sign the next Mbappé.
The “Aramco” Model?
A more likely scenario, according to insiders, is a “Strategic Sale” before an IPO. Just as Aramco acquired Al Qadsiah, PIF might sell 10-15% stakes in the Big 4 to major Saudi corporates (like STC or SABIC) or international partners in 2026, preparing the governance structures for a full public listing in 2027.
The Final Whistle on State Ownership?
Whether the IPO bell rings in 2026 or 2027, the direction of travel is irreversible. The era of the “State-Owned Club” is ending. The era of the “Publicly Traded Entertainment Conglomerate” is beginning.
For the Saudi Pro League, this is the final step in its evolution from a local competition to a global business. In 2026, fans might not just be wearing the shirt; they might be reading the annual report.
